Introduction

Scenario planning is a style of analysis often used in geopolitics (among other things). The premise is simple - start with a scenario, then explore it from as many angles as possible to try to get a handle on what could happen next.

The specific scenario most deeply explored by this site is a topic on a lot of minds lately - the transition of power from the United States federal government to individual states. This transition can be deliberate, with states asserting control, or based on consequence or abandonment at the federal level. This analysis mainly takes the form of two books, one of which, Defederalized, is freely available on this website.

We live in turbulent times. Whatever your opinions on this transition (and there are many!) this scenario is one we are experiencing on a daily basis. Messily and chaotically, the trend seems clear.

If the material on this site can help you be more informed about the implications, hopefully you will also be able to make better decisions about practical personal decisions such as where you live, how you vote, and how you think about both your state and the federal government.

If, perhaps, this material brings you at least some small amount of comfort - in particular, that this current crisis need not culminate in physical violence or civil war - all the better.

Good luck and stay safe.

P.S. Scenario exploder is inspired in part by the excellent Song Exploder podcast. Check it out!