There's a new book coming out in January, called Secession: Why Our Country Should Split Up (And How to Do It Peacefully). It's coming from Kent Greenfield, a law professor.
In Defederalized, I took the position that the federal government was going to be increasingly difficult for states to work with, and that the center of gravity should shift back to the states. Most optimistically, something that looks more like the European Union.
Secession, of course, is entirely different take.
A few thoughts.
First, the pace and extent to which the federal government has ceased to operate has been somewhat astonishing to watch. It's impossible to keep track of the many, many madnesses, although some are trying. It's hard not to think of the grievances of the colonists against the king when thinking about the behavior of the current administration.
Second, assuming that the Democrats manage to take the trifecta in 2028, the amount of work ahead to bring about reforms is truly staggering. It's more or less impossible to implement any kind of progressive agenda if you can't convince people that the entire program won't be turned into an authoritarian nightmare the next time a few thousand people in a purple state get mad about some culture war issue.
I make the case in my book that for the federal system to survive, it's going to have to move a lot off the plate. If I were advising the new president in 2028, I'd recommend moving Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid to the states as quickly as possible, with the federal government assuming a role as a financial backstop and regulator, but not directly administering the programs. Similarly, I'd encourage state coalitions to take over functions where reasonable.
Democrats are likely to take the House, and as of right now it looks like a coin toss for the Senate. Either way, the President will retain the veto, making for a likely contentious environment with a lot more complications around the role of Congress, the Executive, and the Supreme Court.
Once the midterms are over, things will rapidly change as the various candidates for President begin to articulate their vision for the federal government.
With that in mind, in January, a prominent law professor is looking to set the tableau for that discussion with a book called... Secession. I think that the dissolution of the British Empire and the Soviet Union are more useful analogs than the US Civil War. I'm looking forward to seeing how this book handles the topic in January, and even more curious to see how the potential candidates address the... elephant in the room as the 2028 election season starts. Ahem.
Interesting times.